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Truncated RO: Miss 4, Miss 4, cube = 4?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 26 February 2013, at 1:00 a.m.

In Response To: Miss 4, Miss 4, cube = 4? (Karl Frogner)





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 123
5 point match
pip: 120
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--cBBDBB------A--b-bbbbBb-:1:1:1:00:1:1:0:5:8
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.76% (G: 17.66% B: 0.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.24% (G: 8.06% B: 0.27%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.91% (G: 19.43% B: 0.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.09% (G: 8.43% B: 0.26%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.544
Redouble:+1.062
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.780 (-0.220)
Redouble/Take:+1.062 (+0.062)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.008 (+0.772...+0.788)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.014 (+1.048...+1.076)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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