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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 3 March 2013, at 5:32 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

The leader should be somewhat cautious with the cube ATS but it's important not to overdo it. Some matches are lost because the leader waits too long to double which gives the trailer more time to catch up. Here's a good example. D/P is correct ATS even though I'm sure a lot of players would be afraid to double because of their lead in the match (and incorrectly scoop this one up as the trailer).

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 182
9 point match
pip: 123
score: 5

is Player 1
XGID=aaBBBbC----AcD---c-e----A-:0:0:1:00:5:0:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.74% (G:39.99% B:2.45%) 71.47% (G:42.34% B:3.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.26% (G:4.65% B:0.18%) 28.53% (G:5.20% B:0.20%)
Cubeless Equities +0.932 +1.823
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.943 (-0.057)±0.017 (+0.925..+0.960)
Double/Take:+1.103 (+0.103)±0.026 (+1.077..+1.129)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 46 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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