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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Last sunday, a week ago, we had this in the chouette. I was talked from the team into delivering a direct hitter. Hit from the roof, dancing, game over. At home, bracketing the position, I saw it is a) opp's house strength, b) position of the hole in the roof and c) position of the prevent defense ("The standard defense against the Hail Mary pass is the prevent defense. The first priority is to ensure the defensive backs are in zone coverage, and that they keep the receivers well in front of them until the ball is thrown").
The house is good for fire hazard. Better save then sorry. So we have to cover the man in our outfield, i think. Imagine he will hop out, and we can't hit, despite the indirect shots (three, 64 and 55). Candidates:
15/12 14/12. To much paid for insurance. Trash can.
15/12 16/14. A contender. But still a lot of the budget for insurance.
14/12 16/13. The pick of screwed sherlock. A good blend of risk and insurance.
14/12 6/3. and
15/12 6/4. Someone has read about prevent defense ("Occasionally, especially in college football, offensive players (usually wide receivers) will be put in on defense to defend a Hail Mary"). Imagine a mid sized bomb, you can't tackle in your outfield. Now you will be proud standing in the defense with a wide reciever deep in the outfield to defend against pass completion. The man on 14 is better placed for outfield coverage, the damage in the offense smaller ( a spare on three is definitely dilly) and the wide receiver on 16 is the last stand against a mid-sized followup.
Conclusion: A headcoach using ZEUS will choose 15/12 6/4. The old-fashioned practitioner 14/12 16/13.