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Re: OLM Wed. Jan. 3rd

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Thursday, 4 January 2007, at 12:05 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Jan. 3rd (Stick)

We need 36 pips to save the gammon against Stick's 49, which seems like a comfortable lead. I fear getting pick-and-passed and then dancing for a while.

My vote is 6/1. Staying back hopes for a last-ditch shot, and also slows White's bear off.

Having read some of the other responses, I'm beginning to doubt my analysis. If Blue stays, then after the next sequence of rolls we need 34 pips compared to Stick's average of 41. What's that, about 15% gammon wins for Stick? That seems a tolerable risk to me - it's not 15% more gammons.

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