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Rollout and analysis

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 6 March 2013, at 6:30 p.m.

In Response To: Another anchor-breaking decision (Timothy Chow)

I screwed this one up because I failed to perceive the position for what it is, namely a priming battle.

Here's a good exercise to test your understanding of the position. Suppose you knew ahead of time that White would roll a 52 after your play. Would you prefer to play 24/23 8/2 and allow White to point on you with 6/1* 3/1, or would you prefer to play 8/2 7/6 and have White play 6/4 because her 5's are killed?

The answer: it's better by far to be pointed on. We don't want to crack our prime and we do want White to move forwards and crack her prime. So it's critical to give White 5's and 6's. In contrast, getting pointed on is not all bad because if we dance then we get to hold our prime.

As a bonus, note that White's 55 after 24/23 8/2 is particularly gruesome for her. 51 and 61 force her to expose another blot. (So do 54 and 64, but these expose a blot after 8/2 7/6 as well.)

Admittedly, if White does joker out into the outfield then we'd be a little better off holding on to both anchors, but in that variation we're in big trouble anyway, and we need to focus on giving ourselves a way to win, rather than just preparing to lose less badly when things go south.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 93
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aAB-BBCA---------bdbccBB-:1:1:1:61:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout124/23 8/2eq: -0.452
Player:
Opponent:		 33.72% (G:5.07% B:0.19%)
66.28% (G:30.69% B:1.44%)		Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.464...-0.440)
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
2.Rollout18/2 7/6eq: -0.561 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:		 30.24% (G:3.76% B:0.16%)
69.76% (G:31.13% B:3.12%)		Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.577...-0.545)
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout124/17eq: -0.582 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:		 33.86% (G:4.86% B:0.21%)
66.14% (G:42.61% B:3.78%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.596...-0.568)
Duration: 3 hours 52 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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