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Rollout: One of those JOH-type problems

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 8 March 2013, at 12:47 a.m.

In Response To: One of those JOH-type problems (Timothy Chow)

I had trouble estimating White's winning chances here and overestimated them.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 72
7 point match
pip: 62
score: 4

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aBD-BDB-----A-----b--dccb-:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 93.76% (G: 1.63% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 6.24% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 93.44% (G: 4.15% B: 0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 6.56% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.887
Redouble:+1.462
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.972 (-0.028)
Redouble/Take:+1.210 (+0.210)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 5 moves: 4 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves and Cube Decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.003 (+0.969...+0.974)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.007 (+1.203...+1.217)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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