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Roll-of-the-Day: 22 (#2) — 62S-53P-51@-22@-31P-62$-61P-63$-22

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 9 March 2013, at 9:49 p.m.

In Response To: Roll-of-the-Day: 22 (#2) (Chuck Bower)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bEBB-B-cB---bBdaab---:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Many of the moves my retro sequence transpose, so 62S-53P-51@-22@-31P-62$-61P-63$-22 is only one of several possible sequences to get to your position.

Some observations:

  • When Blue makes his 4pt, he will be in the unhappy position of owning 7 points. One of them, likely an outside blocking point, will have to be broken on his next turn.
  • On the other hand, if Blue does not make his 4pt, then the spares on his 6pt are in danger of landing low in his board the next time Blue must play an awkward roll.
  • After this move, the pip count will be tied. Because White will then be on roll, Blue will trail by half a roll in the race.

Considering this last point, Blue should not feel the need to run, R (Run) = 18/14(2). He would still be a little bit worse than tied in the race, and White would have no problem disengaging later.

Making the 4pt, then, seems mandatory. Any other play will leave a position that is both stripped and stacked. The spares on Blue’s 6pt “belong” on his 4pt, and the dice have offered a chance to put them there. Blue should take it.

That leaves only two choices for the final two 4s: blocking with N (Near) = 13/11(2) 6/4(2) or running with E (Each) = 18/16(2) 6/4(2). Since the race still a toss-up, I’ll try the block. Next turn, if I cannot safely run off the 18pt or temporize, I’ll break one of the outside points.

Mike

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