For money I think PoH is the right idea, or at least very close. I'm never sure when to make a gammonish play at 2-away/many-away. The gammon value on a centered cube is elevated, but I guess if there's too high a chance that the opponent will slip us the cube at some point, then we shouldn't make the gammonish play.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 125 | | 7 point match | pip: 159
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---BD-B--AcD---bbe-A--bA:0:0:1:55:5:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/15 21/11 | eq: -0.117 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.58% (G:8.54% B:0.72%)
49.42% (G:12.06% B:0.21%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.129...-0.105)
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) | eq: -0.182 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.19% (G:14.20% B:1.06%)
51.81% (G:13.88% B:0.43%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.193...-0.171)
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 11/1* 6/1 | eq: -0.192 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.85% (G:14.23% B:1.13%)
52.15% (G:13.27% B:0.35%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.203...-0.181)
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes |
|
| |
1 2291 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross