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XGR+: 44 to play from Michy-domesan (Osaka Open)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 10 March 2013, at 7:40 p.m.

In Response To: 44 to play from Michy-domesan (Osaka Open) (Timothy Chow)

I wasn't necessarily looking for input on this one so I'm going to post the bot info now.

Michy looked at 7/3(2) 6/2*(2), leaving no blots but an ugly gap, and at 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2*, eventually settling on the latter. I think his psychological mistake, which I also made when I was watching the game, was to look only at the home board (2pt through 6pt) and to overlook the enormous importance of the bar point for hemming White in. Once you realize this, it's obvious that 8/4(2) 6/2*(2) is much better than 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2*, which makes only a four-point prime rather than a five-point prime and leaves three blots lying around instead of two.

At first I also thought that it was significant that 8/4(2) 7/3 6/2* duplicates our own 6's, but upon further study I don't think this is all that significant a factor. Keeping the bar point is the main issue.

What I still find amazing is that the two candidates Michy considered are both triple whoppers with cheese.





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 127
11 point match
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-baA-BDBC--------bBbbbbbA-:1:-1:1:44:0:6:0:11:16
Blue to play 44

1.XG Roller+8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.680
Player:
Opponent:
72.28% (G:26.12% B:1.99%)
27.72% (G:13.43% B:1.01%)
2.XG Roller+8/4(2) 7/3 6/2* eq: +0.324 (-0.356)
Player:
Opponent:
60.23% (G:22.28% B:1.97%)
39.77% (G:24.22% B:3.62%)
3.XG Roller+7/3(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.318 (-0.362)
Player:
Opponent:
60.39% (G:17.82% B:1.46%)
39.61% (G:11.87% B:0.51%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-baA-BDBC--------bBbbbbbA-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:1:0:16
Blue to play 44

1.XG Roller+8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.490
Player:
Opponent:
72.19% (G:26.34% B:2.02%)
27.81% (G:13.26% B:0.95%)
2.XG Roller+7/3(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.142 (-0.348)
Player:
Opponent:
60.43% (G:17.84% B:1.47%)
39.57% (G:11.86% B:0.51%)
3.XG Roller+8/4(2) 7/3 6/2* eq: +0.059 (-0.431)
Player:
Opponent:
60.14% (G:22.28% B:1.97%)
39.86% (G:24.54% B:3.64%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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