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64P-33B-41 — 53P-33B-41 — 61P-33B-41 — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 12 March 2013, at 1:19 a.m.

In Response To: Third-roll Trio — xxP-33B-41 (Taper_Mike)

64P-33B-41 Position ID: 4HPGAQaGZ/ABMA Match ID: cAkGAAAAAAAA

53P-33B-41 Position ID: 4HPGAQaMZ/ABMA Match ID: cAkGAAAAAAAA

61P-33B-41 Position ID: 4HPGAQbg2+ABMA Match ID: cAkGAAAAAAAA

In all three of these positions, White has secured an advanced anchor, so splitting with the 4 is thematic. Blue needs to try for an anchor himself, or otherwise escape. Splitting with the 1 is too much of a half measure. Blue needs an advanced anchor, and splitting to the 23pt would require him to roll a natural to get it. The big question, then, is whether to go wild, and slot the 5pt as well. If that is too loose, then U (Up) = 24/23 24/20 is the alternative. In regard to 61P-33B-41, where Blue needs to unstack his 6pt, Nack remarks, “Slotting in front of [the] anchor is thematic, noting too that the duplication of aces is efficient.” Observing that, “[Wild] is the best play even at (gammon) save,” Nack did not even bother rolling it out in unlimited games. Here is his gammon-save rollout. When there are only 4 checkers on the 6pt, slotting is perhaps less obvious, but is also strong. The two spares on Blue’s 6pt “belong” on the 5pt, so putting one there makes sense. The rollouts below show that Wild is clearly superior for 53P-33B-41, but ties with Up in 64P-33B-41. I would appreciate hearing the explanation for this. Other than the notion that Blue’s priming game is “gap-ier” when he holds the 2pt, I have no ideas on this point. Thanks to Chase for sending me these rollouts. If you have a rollout of an early game position that you would like to share, please send it my way. I will credit you, and include it in the next distribution of my RolloutSummary. Thanks. Mike

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64P-33B-41 — Tied!

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-b-D-B---cE-b-c-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	24/20 6/5	eq: -0.3762
	Player: Opponent: 41.48% (G:9.96% B:0.37%) 58.52% (G:18.11% B:0.90%) Conf.: ±0.0025 (-0.3788...-0.3737) - [50.9%] Duration: 14 hours 13 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 24/20	eq: -0.3763 (0.0000)
	Player: Opponent: 41.28% (G:9.05% B:0.32%) 58.72% (G:16.51% B:0.61%) Conf.: ±0.0026 (-0.3789...-0.3737) - [49.1%] Duration: 14 hours 20 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/8	eq: -0.4132 (-0.0370)
	Player: Opponent: 40.53% (G:8.65% B:0.31%) 59.47% (G:17.57% B:0.69%) Conf.: ±0.0068 (-0.4200...-0.4064) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Rollout by Chase 2013-Feb-22 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10 64P-33B-41-ch.xgp [W=U D37] "<41*5 Evals by Taper_Mike [W U2 D40 S46 $78] "&e [U W6 D30 S44 $94] /0.360t

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

64P-33B-41 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 2-ply Trunc	671629364	–417.490	[U W6 D30 S44 $94] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply	1	–376.2	[W=U D37] "<41*5	Chase
XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–374.6	[W U2 D40 S46 $78] "&e	Taper_Mike

---

53P-33B-41

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---Bb-D-B---cE-b-c-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	24/20 6/5	eq: -0.3166
	Player: Opponent: 43.15% (G:10.21% B:0.39%) 56.85% (G:17.66% B:0.84%) Conf.: ±0.0076 (-0.3242...-0.3090) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 24/20	eq: -0.3380 (-0.0214)
	Player: Opponent: 42.40% (G:9.01% B:0.34%) 57.60% (G:16.09% B:0.57%) Conf.: ±0.0069 (-0.3450...-0.3311) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
3.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: -0.3758 (-0.0592)
	Player: Opponent: 41.66% (G:8.66% B:0.33%) 58.34% (G:17.10% B:0.63%) Conf.: ±0.0074 (-0.3833...-0.3684) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Rollout by Chase 2013-Feb-22 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10 53P-33B-41-tm.xgp [W U21 D59] "<5 Evals by Taper_Mike [W U18 D55] "&e [U W3 D41] /0.360t

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

53P-33B-41 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 2-ply Trunc	671893677	–351.026	[U W3 D41] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply	1	–316.6	[W U21 D59] "<5	Chase
XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–315.1	[W U18 D55] "&e	Taper_Mike

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61P-33B-41

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----b-EBB---cD-b-c-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	24/20 6/5	eq: -0.2434
	Player: Opponent: 44.83% (G:10.01% B:0.41%) 55.17% (G:16.04% B:0.66%) Conf.: ±0.0085 (-0.2519...-0.2350) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 24/20	eq: -0.2837 (-0.0403)
	Player: Opponent: 43.64% (G:8.72% B:0.32%) 56.36% (G:14.91% B:0.50%) Conf.: ±0.0074 (-0.2911...-0.2762) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 47 minutes
3.	Rollout1	13/9 6/5	eq: -0.3240 (-0.0806)
	Player: Opponent: 43.06% (G:10.09% B:0.44%) 56.94% (G:17.46% B:1.13%) Conf.: ±0.0086 (-0.3326...-0.3154) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 00 minute
4.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: -0.3317 (-0.0883)
	Player: Opponent: 42.54% (G:8.50% B:0.33%) 57.46% (G:16.15% B:0.59%) Conf.: ±0.0073 (-0.3390...-0.3244) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Rollout by Chase 2013-Feb-22 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10 61P-33B-41-tm.xgp [W U40 $81 D88] "<5 Evals by Taper_Mike [W U48 $84 D87 e110 S120] "&e [W U30 D77 S97 $103] /0.360t

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

61P-33B-41 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 2-ply Trunc	671121194	–279.523	[W U30 D77 S97 $103] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply	1	–243.4	[W U40 $81 D88] "<5	Chase
XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–241.0	[W U48 $84 D87 e110 S120] "&e	Taper_Mike

61P-33B-41 — Gammon Save

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR, MET: Kazaross XG2	49284781	–430	s[W U8] <=10	Nack Ballard

Messages In This Thread

• Third-roll Trio — xxP-33B-41
  Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 9 March 2013, at 1:34 p.m.
  • Third-roll Trio — xxP-33B-41
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 9 March 2013, at 3:34 p.m.
  • Third-roll Trio — xxP-33B-41
    David Levy -- Saturday, 9 March 2013, at 5:53 p.m.
  • Third-roll Trio — xxP-33B-41
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 9 March 2013, at 10:56 p.m.
  • 64P-33B-41 — 53P-33B-41 — 61P-33B-41 — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
    Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 12 March 2013, at 1:19 a.m.
    • 64P-33B-41 — 53P-33B-41 — 61P-33B-41 — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
      Chase -- Tuesday, 12 March 2013, at 3:59 a.m.
    • 64P-33B-41 — 53P-33B-41 — 61P-33B-41 — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 13 March 2013, at 9:46 p.m.
      • How does S (Split) fare?
        Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 16 March 2013, at 10:34 a.m.