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Cube action ATS
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Cube action ATS (John O'Hagan)
Date: Wednesday, 13 March 2013, at 4:24 a.m.
This problem is an excellent example of why you should clock everything and why it doesn't hurt weaker players to clock matches as much as it does strong players.
- There are 17 hitting numbers though the value of 65 is diminished. Out of those games I think we average about 85% wins when we hit so I give us 14/17 games.
- There are 10 games where we get past the checker to safety. I reckon we win 9/10 of these.
- That leaves 9 games where we don't get our checker to safety. On average we leave roughly 15 shots and when we don't get hit we'll still lose a few games from the 23pt anchor game. I think we're a slight favorite in these games so I give us 5/9 games.
That adds up to 14/17 + 9/10 + 5/9 or 28/36 games. That is ~78% wins for us.
Now, gammons. We rarely lose a gammon, we'll say 1%. We do however win some gammons in the 17 games we hit. I estimate maybe a third of those games are gammon wins and on top of that we get a fluke gammon from the 23pt anchor game every once in a while. So roughly 7 games or 19% of the time.
What is our opponent's take point?
- Double/Pass gives us 13a 5a or 14% ME
- Double/Take/Lose gives us 13a 3a or 5% ME
- Double/Take/Win gives us 9a 7a or 39% ME
Those figures were derived using Neil's Numbers.
The taker would be risking 9% to gain 25%. Risk/(risk+gain) = 9/(9+25) = 9/34 or ~26%. This is our dead cube take point. Clearly we have recube vig here and I believe we should be redoubling any time we get that immediate shot in those 9 games. If we try to take a different view giving us 8 points every time we win we'd get.
- Double/Pass gives us 13a 5a or 14% ME
- Double/Take/Lose gives us 13a 3a or 5% ME
- Double/Take/Win gives us 5a 7a or 63% ME
This changes it to risking 9 to gain 49 or a live take point of ~15%. Factor in the gammons as being worth half of what they are for money or 19*.2 = 4% roughly. Add that on to the lctp and we're at a fully adjusted tp of ~19%. The take is clear.
In these way lopsided score big cube situations esp. where we have some gammon chances and we're diminishing our gammon value by recubing we have to be extremely close to the cash point to double. Are we close enough if the lctp is 19% and our opp. wins 22% of the time? I don't think so and if this is human1 v. human2 and human1 = John O'Hagan he shouldn't be cubing. If it is some random playing John O'Hagan he should cube of course and now the take is in question. If John is playing XG I suspect doubling is his best chance at winning the match.
Stick
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