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Cube action ATS

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 13 March 2013, at 7:09 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS (John O'Hagan)

I calculate the raw takepoint at 1/6 or about 17%. The deuce point game alone would give brown enough to take, but not by much. Add in the 17/36 times she is hit, and the win rate goes way down at the same time the gammon losses increase, so this makes me inclined to say it's a pass.

On the opposite side of the coin, if white rolls an airball (11, 21, 23, 41, 65) white is in trouble. Are these nine bad shakes enough to push it into take territory? I don't think so, but I'm not sure. I'll stick with pass.

Is it too good? If white misses that's probably a market gainer, and the airballs will make white wish he had cashed, so I'll ship it. If I'm not sure it's a take, how can it be too good?

R/P

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