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DQ: Safety first? *ROLLOUT* and ply analysis question

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Thursday, 14 March 2013, at 9:47 p.m.

In Response To: DQ: Safety first? (Timothy Chow)

TC said: "Leo, are you going to post a rollout for this one?" Here it is.

Note that the GNUbg 4-ply analysis said the plays were too close to call, only .001 difference. However, the rollout says the 2nd-best play is a huge blunder.

Interestingly, a GNUbg 1-ply analysis would have flagged the error, with equity difference of 0.046.

I was under the impression that more plies meant better results. Obviously, that's not always the case. So, how is this donkey supposed to know which setting to use?

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, leo 0

Move number 3: leo to play 61

gnubg	175
leo	147
Position ID: 4HNwwAbg8+ADAg Match ID: cAkHAAAAAAAE

• leo moves 20/13

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.147
	0.573 0.095 0.001 - 0.427 0.092 0.002
Cubeful equities:
	2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.	No double	+0.215
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.785
3.	Double, take	+0.004	-0.211
Proper cube action:		No double, take (21.2%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	20/13	+0.534
			0.647 0.077 0.001 - 0.353 0.059 0.002 +0.310 +0.534 0.003 0.003 0.000 - 0.003 0.002 0.000 0.007 0.016
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			367 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678332717 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.5 (min. 360 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/7 8/7	+0.361 ( -0.174)
			0.597 0.120 0.003 - 0.403 0.090 0.003 +0.223 +0.361 0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 0.009 0.019
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			363 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678332717 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.5 (min. 360 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	2	13/6	+0.200 ( -0.334)
			0.561 0.121 0.003 - 0.439 0.103 0.002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	2	20/14 8/7	+0.177 ( -0.357)
			0.562 0.100 0.002 - 0.438 0.103 0.002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	2	8/1	+0.109 ( -0.425)
			0.539 0.122 0.003 - 0.461 0.126 0.002
			2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	0	8/7 8/2	+0.040 ( -0.494)
			0.518 0.120 0.004 - 0.482 0.130 0.004
			0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Messages In This Thread

• DQ: Safety first?
  leobueno -- Wednesday, 27 February 2013, at 6:24 p.m.
  • DQ: Safety first?
    Stick -- Wednesday, 27 February 2013, at 7:34 p.m.
  • DQ: Safety first?
    leobueno -- Wednesday, 27 February 2013, at 9:41 p.m.
    • DQ: Safety first?
      Giuliano Pietoso -- Thursday, 28 February 2013, at 11:14 a.m.
  • DQ: Safety first?
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 8 March 2013, at 1:20 a.m.
    • DQ: Safety first? *ROLLOUT* and ply analysis question
      leobueno -- Thursday, 14 March 2013, at 9:47 p.m.
      • DQ: Safety first? *ROLLOUT* and ply analysis question
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 15 March 2013, at 1:25 a.m.
  • XGR+: Safety first?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 10 March 2013, at 7:25 p.m.