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BGonline.org Forums
5 Positions from Superbackgame
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: 5 Positions from Superbackgame (Stick)
Date: Monday, 18 March 2013, at 4:26 p.m.
Ok. I'll participate in the donk-a-thon. (c:
1)16/10 13/11 - spread 'em around and dare white to hit. she has no board and this maximizes blue's opportunity to make a fourth blocking point.
2)The double hit cries out to me. How can I resist its siren song?
3)I count 18 shakes that force white to expose a double shot, and several of those are real horrors. But 50% to expose a shot followed by 50% (or so) to hit the shot followed by a ~80% chance to contain the hit checker doesn't seem to add up to a cube. ND/T
4) Now we have a double shot, but unless we can pick up a second checker we're still only about 50% to win (closed out with 8 off is ~50-50). Ten shakes hit both and another 22 hit one with a decent chance of picking up the second checker. Let's say blue wins 10 games from an immediate double hit, then another 2/3 of the single hits for another 14 games. So blue wins about 67% of the time with lots of market losers, so I think the cube is sound. the take seems clear since white can't be gammoned and there's some nice recube vig if blue rolls poorly.
R/T
5)The rule of thumb is that you have a cube with three points to clear. I'm not sure how the additional blot on the 4 factors, but i see white's board is inferior to the trice ref position. I'll cube here and pass as white since I'd rather lose a point than risk the gammon.
D/P
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