Number 1
I was playing against XGR+ while playing this out and it played 10, 5 which made my eyes wake up and pay attention. It's true you can play basically anything here that helps your overall distribution and bear in the best since the opponent should not be hitting on the upcoming sequences.
        
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 220 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 132
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--bbb-EBCA--dC--Ac-b------:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/5 | eq: -0.036 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.40% (G:22.83% B:1.43%)
55.60% (G:11.48% B:0.54%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 16/10 13/11 | eq: -0.037 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.45% (G:22.76% B:1.38%)
55.55% (G:11.55% B:0.53%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 16/10 7/5 | eq: -0.051 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.83% (G:20.71% B:1.23%)
55.17% (G:11.58% B:0.53%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 13/7 | eq: -0.053 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.16% (G:22.60% B:1.35%)
55.84% (G:11.99% B:0.54%) | |
|
Number 2
I have seen a lot of people unable to stop themselves from double hitting in similar situations OtB in live play. When you have such a powerhouse of a backgame set up and absolutely no offense in place like we do here, patience is a must. Our timing as is is pretty solid.
     
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 126 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 220
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=------B-C---cDa-acbdaBBB--:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 | eq: +0.011 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.22% (G:11.34% B:0.47%)
44.78% (G:23.64% B:1.49%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/8 6/5 | eq: -0.003 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.02% (G:11.06% B:0.44%)
44.98% (G:24.11% B:1.54%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 21/20* 21/16* | eq: -0.324 (-0.336) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.42% (G:9.27% B:0.37%)
55.58% (G:22.10% B:1.13%) | |
|
Number 3
The last 3 positions are not as complex and I feel a regular settings rollout is good enough. For this first one if you look at how many horror story rolls your opponent has immediately you'll see why it's a must cube before the shot even comes. Catching something like this OtB means really being awake.
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 60 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 152
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=--BBABB--A-------Abeb-BBf-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | | Blue on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 70.72% (G:16.23% B:0.62%) | 71.78% (G:18.11% B:0.96%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.28% (G:14.10% B:0.19%) | 28.22% (G:13.79% B:0.20%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.440 | +0.973 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0.584 (-0.194) | ±0.015 (+0.569..+0.598) | | Double/Take: | +0.777 | ±0.020 (+0.757..+0.797) | | Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.223) | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Take | | Rollout details | 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57970008
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | | Duration: 9 minutes 33 seconds |
|
Number 4
The math on this one breaks down to making it a simple take.
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 15 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 130
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBBC---------A--a-aABe-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 74.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.38% (G:10.30% B:0.98%) | 25.84% (G:10.35% B:0.96%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.360 | +0.740 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.654 | ±0.005 (+0.649..+0.659) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.644 (-0.010) | ±0.010 (+0.633..+0.654) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.346) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.8% |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57970008
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 95.6% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds |
Number 5
An excellent example of why one shouldn't misapply maxims like 'double a backgame with 3 points left to clear'.
   
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 161 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 82
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--BBABB-------A---cefABBa-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 46.70% (G:26.34% B:1.57%) | 46.82% (G:26.39% B:1.57%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 53.30% (G:7.40% B:0.30%) | 53.18% (G:7.45% B:0.33%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.136 | +0.276 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.120 | ±0.018 (+0.103..+0.138) |
| Double/Beaver: | -0.361 (-0.481) | ±0.051 (-0.412..-0.310) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.880) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Beaver |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.1% |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57970008
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 15 minutes 45 seconds |