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51S-44B-51 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 23 March 2013, at 8:57 p.m.

In Response To: Neil Kazaross vs. Michy — 51S-44B-51 (Taper_Mike)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-D---cD--bc-e---AA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.	Rollout1	23/18 8/7	eq: -0.5255
	Player: Opponent: 38.19% (G:6.84% B:0.27%) 61.81% (G:18.67% B:0.74%) Conf.: ±0.0024 (-0.5279...-0.5230) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 hours 38 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: -0.5351 (-0.0096)
	Player: Opponent: 37.78% (G:5.92% B:0.22%) 62.22% (G:17.31% B:0.51%) Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.5374...-0.5328) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 hours 10 minutes
3.	Rollout2	23/22 8/3	eq: -0.5422 (-0.0167)
	Player: Opponent: 37.50% (G:6.83% B:0.25%) 62.50% (G:18.27% B:0.63%) Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.5452...-0.5392) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 45 minutes
4.	Rollout3	23/22 13/8	eq: -0.5496 (-0.0241)
	Player: Opponent: 37.39% (G:6.61% B:0.24%) 62.61% (G:17.41% B:0.55%) Conf.: ±0.0041 (-0.5538...-0.5455) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
5.	Rollout3	13/7	eq: -0.5502 (-0.0247)
	Player: Opponent: 37.26% (G:7.00% B:0.27%) 62.74% (G:17.60% B:0.67%) Conf.: ±0.0046 (-0.5547...-0.5456) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
6.	Rollout4	24/23 8/3	eq: -0.5795 (-0.0541)
	Player: Opponent: 35.75% (G:6.72% B:0.23%) 64.25% (G:14.74% B:0.58%) Conf.: ±0.0048 (-0.5843...-0.5748) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28894027 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28894027 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28894027 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 4 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28894027 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2013-Mar-23 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03 51S-44B-51-tm.xgp [W U10 C17 S24 D25 c54] "<=46*31 15*12 [C S4 W5 U15 D17 c38] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

51S-44B-51 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 2-ply Trunc	678399276	–565.834	[S D2 C4 W12 U16 c30] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	28894027	–525.5	[W U10 C17 S24 D25 c54] "<=46*31 15*12	Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.03 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–525.0	[C S4 W5 U15 D17 c38] "&e	Taper_Mike

51S-44B-51 — Nactation Key

Family	Nactation	Traditional Notation	Note
Both	B	23/18, 8/7
Cross	C	23/22, 8/3
Cross	c	24/23, 8/3
Down	D	13/7
Split	S	23/22, 13/8	Same as Z
Up	U	24/18
Wild	W	23/18, 8/7
Reverse split	Z	23/22, 13/8	S is preferred.

This may be “standard,” but it is not exactly automatic. In his match with Michy, Neil ponders awhile before selecting the Wild play that seems to be his first choice. Both the XGR++ eval, and the GnuBg trunc that simulates XGR++ miss this one. It was while viewing the XGR++ eval that I wrote, “There are a lot of close choices here, so there’s no real right and wrong.” The rollout is not as ambiguous, although U (Up) fares pretty well. If you have an early game rollout that you would like to share, please send it my way. I will include it in the next distribution of my RolloutSummary, and give all credit to you! Thanks. Mike

Messages In This Thread

• Neil Kazaross vs. Michy — 51S-44B-51
  Taper_Mike -- Friday, 22 March 2013, at 12:15 p.m.
  • Neil Kazaross vs. Michy — 51S-44B-51
    Stick -- Friday, 22 March 2013, at 4:02 p.m.
    • Neil Kazaross vs. Michy — 51S-44B-51
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 22 March 2013, at 4:55 p.m.
    • Neil Kazaross vs. Michy — 51S-44B-51
      smcrtorchs -- Friday, 22 March 2013, at 9:10 p.m.
  • 51S-44B-51 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 23 March 2013, at 8:57 p.m.
    • 51S-44B-51 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
      neilkaz -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:36 p.m.