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Posted By: Dale Berlin
Date: Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 4:40 p.m.

In Response To: xG2 (Michael Nielsen)

Thank you Michael for your response. Yes, I see what you mean about "not expecting to win 100%". You stirred my curiosity, so I read about Dr. Elo in the xG2 help files. There I found xG2 has a built in calculator that computes winning chances P, based on two player's Elo, experience, and match length. Looking at data from all BG sites I have played, P was calculated as follows:

From All Sites 1516 matches played 1889 opp elo 1988 my elo 52.5% P actual winning % 57.5% P calculated winning %

The actual and calculated values are still considerably different. Have I not played enough matches for the P values to converge, or am I wrong assuming they should?

When I only look at GG matches, I play better 57% and have a 526/518 record, yet opponents Elo is 2007 and mine is 1988.

I think xG2 keeps an ongoing Elo for each player I play. I think it is seeded at 1600. Could this be causing what I consider to be odd numbers, or is it just my odd head?

Thanks you

Messages In This Thread

• xG2
  Dale Berlin -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 12:48 p.m.
  • xG2
    Michael Nielsen -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 1:35 p.m.
    • xG2
      Dale Berlin -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 4:40 p.m.
      • xG2
        Michael Nielsen -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 6:42 p.m.
        • xG2
          Dale Berlin -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 8:04 p.m.
          • xG2
            Michael Nielsen -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 9:00 p.m.