The street number of the house next door to my sister's is 2216 and every time I see the 2216 numeral on that mailbox, I think of all the times I should have played 22/16 but did not. Now I have another position to think of when I pass by that house.
I made the pedestrian play 9/3 here, not noticing that I could have increased my gammon and backgammon chances by playing 22/16, while reducing my game-winning chances by only a tiny amount. Some players would get it right when playing online (for whatever reason), but I believe very few would get it right over a live board. Hope you will let me know if you would have played 22/16 over the board.
         
 
        
 | | White is ronn
score: 6
pip: 111 | | 7 point match | pip: 149
score: 4
Blue is peever |
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| XGID=---BaBB-BDa------bbcccB--A:1:-1:1:62:4:6:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 22/16 | eq: -0.447 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.07% (G:4.59% B:0.45%)
76.93% (G:46.66% B:3.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.451...-0.442) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds |
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| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 9/3 | eq: -0.466 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23.09% (G:3.60% B:0.35%)
76.91% (G:30.23% B:2.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.470...-0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | Bar/23 8/2 | eq: -0.569 (-0.122) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 19.55% (G:2.02% B:0.06%)
80.45% (G:23.79% B:0.87%) | |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2