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2 Good or Not 2 Good?

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 4:43 a.m.

In Response To: 2 Good or Not 2 Good? (Dmitriy Obukhov)

17 crossovers vs 19 crossovers, with Blue on roll, means that Blues wins 90% or so of the games without getting hit gammon (let's be a bit conservative).

Blue moves to completely safety with 66, 55, 33, 65, 64, 63, 54 = 11 rolls. On 25 rolls he'll leave shots. Let's say that on half of these, Blue gets hit, so we have 23.5 non-hits and 12.5 hits. Let's say the non-hits break down as 21 Gs and 2.5 Singles.

On the 12.5 hits, White will do well with cube ownership, but the bar is still open, so let's give Blue a single win and a gammon win. I'd get then 10.5 losses, 1 G and 1 Single win. Summing up, I'd get 22 G, 3.5 singles, 10.5 losses, so it looks like a small play on.

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