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2 Good or Not 2 Good?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 4:44 a.m.

In Response To: 2 Good or Not 2 Good? (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Gammon value is roughly 1/2 ATS, so how many g's? Eleven numbers get home safely, sixteen leave a single shot, and 9 leave a double shot. So about 26/36 you either get past or leave a shot and are missed. There's some double jeopardy after leaving a double shot and being missed so maybe 25/36 or so is more accurate. If you're able to get past the 6-point safely, you're a huge fav to get the gammon since White's gammon count after rolling the missing number will be in the high 50s.

You only get hit 10/36 to 11/36 (and these aren't all losses) so it looks like g's/losses are > 2/1 so I vote for TG.

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