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money: 44 - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Tuesday, 2 April 2013, at 4:58 a.m.

In Response To: money: 44 (Keene)

The 44 play:

is XG Roller+

score: 15
pip: 96
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 114
score: 6

is Keene
XGID=a--BBBBCA---bB-----bbccAb-:2:-1:1:44:6:15:3:0:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout113/5 8/4 7/3eq: +0.536
Player:
Opponent:		73.91% (G:20.01% B:0.77%)
26.09% (G:5.83% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.530...+0.542) - [100.0%]
Duration: 54.5 seconds
2.playedRollout113/9 13/5 8/4eq: +0.514 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		73.82% (G:17.15% B:0.60%)
26.18% (G:4.59% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.507...+0.521) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.8 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 13/5 7/3eq: +0.482 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		72.90% (G:19.06% B:0.74%)
27.10% (G:9.05% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.476...+0.488) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.4 seconds
4.4-ply13/9(2) 8/4 7/3eq: +0.439 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		70.98% (G:15.51% B:0.55%)
29.02% (G:4.27% B:0.10%)
5.3-ply13/5(2)eq: +0.369 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		69.07% (G:16.56% B:0.54%)
30.93% (G:7.72% B:0.13%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31983934
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

As you can see, I chose to avoid the super-joker 11,22, and brought two down from the mid, sacrificing the additional builder.

The redouble.. That I nailed. Sent it in, and XG took (of course).

is XG Roller+

score: 15
pip: 101
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 6

is Keene
XGID=a---BBCAC-A-bB---a-bbcbAb-:1:1:1:00:6:15:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.78% (G:16.39% B:0.53%) 69.78% (G:16.39% B:0.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.22% (G:11.05% B:0.15%) 30.22% (G:11.05% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.453 +0.905
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.676 (-0.020)
played Redouble/Take:+0.696
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.304)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I stopped this early in the rollout as the confidence hit 100% very quickly.

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