Since the Jacoby Rule is not in effect, gammons are already in play. Otherwise, you could argue that the lopsided gammon risk should make Blue pause before cubing. I like doubling. Even if he is unwilling to break his bar point, Blue has a quadruple shot working here. 1, 2, 4, and 5 all hit. Except for a roll of 11, White has no way to safely cover his 1pt, so Blue can hit loose almost at will. There is a significant chance that Blue will trap or close out three of White’s checkers, and possibly more. The take decision is much harder for me. With nine White checkers off, and two on the roof, Blue wins 88% of the games when his spares are positioned optimally after a closeout. Obviously, that’s a pass, but we are a long way from that now. Still, I don’t see how White can expect to make it home without rolling a couple of perfectas back-to-back. Reluctantly, I will pass. I won’t be surprised, however, if that’s a whopper. Mike | ||||||||||||
