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This position is causing a furore in the British backgammon world

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 15 April 2013, at 4:27 p.m.

In Response To: This position is causing a furore in the British backgammon world (Snua)

i presume that there's no controversy over the take.

Blue hits 61% of the time and probably wins about 90% of those. So figure 55% to win from hitting.

Let's calculate the equity:

ND - 55% wins from hitting, then maybe another 5% for when Blue gets a shot later. I'll make the approximation that a double hit is a gammon with no other gammons ( gammons from a single hit will roughly offset double hits that don't rewult in a gammon. That's 1/18 or about 5%. further, I'll ignore blue's gammon losses

ND: .6 * 2 + .05*4 = 1.2+ .2 = 1.4 for blue .4 * 2 = .8 for white

Net equity is .6 for ND

DT .55*4 + .05*8 = 2.2 + .4 = 2.6 for blue .45*4 = 1.8

net equity is .8

seems to me it's a cube. Blue has market losers up the yin-yang.

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