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Gnubg vs Snowie

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Monday, 15 April 2013, at 7:36 p.m.

In Response To: Dear Mr. Depreli (Maik Stiebler)

I've just run the 1000 25-pt-matches through XG 1-ply luck analysis.

Analysis of one match takes approx. 6 seconds on my PC.

Standard deviation of match results reduces from a little less than 50% for the raw results to comfortably less than 5%. Thus one VR match is worth more than 100 non-VR matches.

Given the 1000 VR matches, a 1%-wide interval can be given which contains the real winning chance of Gnubg with very high confidence.

The corresponding interval for Elo difference would be about 7 points, or, equivalently by rule of thumb, approximately 0.2 for the PR difference.

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