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Pay now to reap later or not? **ROLLOUT**

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Tuesday, 16 April 2013, at 7:56 p.m.

In Response To: Pay now to reap later or not? (Michael Depreli)

The best play is 14/10 7/4

Blue pays off to a hitting 43 but he gains by creating more flexibility to bring the position home especially if he rolls high doubles next.
Take a look how 44 plays should blue not play 14/10 7/4.

Stick mentioned white's inner board blot and open 4 point. If you move the spare on the 5 and make the 2 point XGR++ still thinks 14/10 7/4 is best.

Take a look at a stronger position for white (unlimited games this time)

What's your play now and how clear do you think it is?

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166 11 point match pip: 85 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBcBBBB--AAc-A----bbbb---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Here's the original position rollout

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 165 11 point match pip: 85 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBcBBBB--AAc-A----bc-ba--:1:-1:1:43:6:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 43

1.	Rollout1	14/10 7/4	eq: +1.134
	Player: Opponent: 85.57% (G:63.52% B:2.06%) 14.43% (G:0.76% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+1.124...+1.144) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	14/10 11/8	eq: +1.092 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 84.79% (G:61.07% B:1.83%) 15.21% (G:0.90% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+1.082...+1.102) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
3.	Rollout1	14/11 10/6	eq: +1.088 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 84.54% (G:61.03% B:1.74%) 15.46% (G:0.71% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.077...+1.098) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
4.	Rollout1	14/7	eq: +1.086 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 84.80% (G:60.58% B:1.79%) 15.20% (G:0.85% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.075...+1.097) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
5.	Rollout1	11/4	eq: +1.064 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 84.21% (G:60.95% B:1.88%) 15.79% (G:1.21% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.053...+1.075) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds
6.	Rollout1	10/6 7/4	eq: +1.023 (-0.111)
	Player: Opponent: 82.65% (G:62.69% B:2.31%) 17.35% (G:1.49% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.012...+1.033) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
1 622 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Pay now to reap later or not?
  Michael Depreli -- Thursday, 11 April 2013, at 2:42 p.m.
  • Pay now to reap later or not?
    Stick -- Thursday, 11 April 2013, at 2:56 p.m.
  • Pay now to reap later or not?
    Stick -- Saturday, 13 April 2013, at 11:50 p.m.
    • Pay now to reap later or not?
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 14 April 2013, at 12:29 a.m.
    • Pay now to reap later or not?
      ah_clem -- Sunday, 14 April 2013, at 1:24 p.m.
  • Pay now to reap later or not? **ROLLOUT**
    Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 16 April 2013, at 7:56 p.m.