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51 to play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 17 April 2013, at 12:07 a.m.

In Response To: 51 to play (Chase)

The primary question is whether to play 23/18 or 16/11. 23/18 gives us the most shots if White rolls one of her bad rolls (65 64 63 62 61 54) right away, but if White rolls something like 44 33 31 21 11 then Blue's long-term shot equity takes a serious hit. Normally I'm inclined to stay back as long as possible when this far behind in the race, but here I'm not sure. Our main chances lie in White's back checkers and if we don't hit that shot then we're in trouble anyway. So I guess I play 23/18.

The ace I'm not sure about. 16/15 is the boldest but it doesn't actually give us a triple shot most of the time because White will pick and pass with 65 63 62. 2/1 makes good use of our dilly builder, though we're not going to cover it for a while. 21/17 duplicates 4's but gives us slightly fewer shots when White breaks her outfield point. I'll go with 23/17 but again I'm not sure.

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