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Simplified Random Walk Model for Chouette $ expectation

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Monday, 22 April 2013, at 2:04 p.m.

In Response To: Simplified Random Walk Model for Chouette $ expectation (Rod)

Hi Rod - just from a very quick read of your post:

>> ....Assigning the better player a 65% chance of winning and an average 3 point win/loss per game
:> ...
:> while he [the better player] could have lost, that would only be a 1 in 1000 occurrence.

I think that your average results will be alright, but your variances looking at sessions like this, will be hurt by the fact that you use an average of observations that also are estimated averages (the 3 points per game).

Basically, it seems more likely, that the better player would loose the session more often, if the number of points per game was not steady 3, but varies from 1 - 16 points. This would in particular be true for the chou, I suppose.

Again, the expected value for a session would probably remain the same (unless of course the underdog errs relatively more, when the cube goes sky-high, or the better player selects less volatile plays in such a situations, to ensure his session win, at the expense of a little session equity).

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