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Simplified Random Walk Model for Chouette $ expectation
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: Simplified Random Walk Model for Chouette $ expectation (Henrik Bukkjaer)
Date: Monday, 22 April 2013, at 2:58 p.m.
I believe it is nearly impossible to come up with reasonable statistics for this chouette play because of several reasons:
A) a lot depends on the not only how much better a player is, but in what ways is he better....does he know how to take advantage of the worse players optimally? does he ever steam? is he a money-manager and is just looking to end up a winner or is he playing the odds on every game? does he have good box strategies?
B) A lot depends on the rules of the particular chouette that determine just how much ability you have to pick and choose your opponents and your cubing;
C) A lot depends on the nature of the bad players...if they are steamers; if they are careful to follow the lead of the better players or simply make their own decisions; if they are bad with the cube, checker play, or both, and how much with each; if they have tendencies you can "read" when they are up or down on the sheet, or take too deep or drop to quickly etc.
I can tell you that Jake used to keep extremely detailed statistics about his chouette play when he was playing in Chicago and was generally, by far, the best player in the game, and I recall him saying he had an expectation of being up an average of 4 points per hour, which seemed surprisingly low to me given his huge skill advantage, but I will let Jake speak more for himself on this.
From my standpoint, an average of 3 points per game for a chouette and 2 points per game for heads up seems a little high to me on both counts, but I would have to do more study.
I think the basic premise you are driving at is right. If you are a much better player, you will have plenty of losing sessions in a chouette and in heads up play and that will drive down your average winnings quite a bit. Unless you are a huge favorite, or unless you have a very low standard of living, don't think it is very likely you can make a living playing money backgammon. Yes, I know there are a few that can and have, but they are the exceptions as they are amazingly good, not only at playing, but more importantly, at finding the right people to play for the right stakes. That's the key to making money in money backgammon!
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