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BGonline.org Forums
Simplified Random Walk Model for Chouette $ expectation
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: Simplified Random Walk Model for Chouette $ expectation (Jake Jacobs)
Date: Tuesday, 23 April 2013, at 12:28 p.m.
I want to emphasize a couple of points that have not been properly illuminated in this thread.
1. How do you judge who is the best player in the chouette and how do you determine just how much better he is? Only the results in hindsight will give you a strong indication, and even that, as pointed out, takes a long time and a lot of play to overcome the deviations. I guarantee you that it is not always the player who has the best PR ratings that is the best chouette player. There are many skills beyond the ability to determine the right checker play and cube action, and there is a big difference between money play and match play.
2. The rules of the chouette, which vary greatly around the world, is a major factor in determining how big an advantage the better chouette player has over his competitors. The consulting rules, individual or single cube, ability to choose who you double and who you take (or not), how you get and keep the box, settlements, extras, all affect what the better player can or can't do to maximize his equity. (By the way, I am convinced that the more your rules allow you to beat up on the fish the more you will win in the short run, but the faster you will drive the fish out of the game. Just because they're not the best backgammon players doesn't mean they're stupid and eventually they will stop coming back for more punishment. There are always a few exceptions, like me, who never stopped coming back....so far.)
3. Generally speaking, the more you play for the higher the quality of your opponents. There are exceptions, and this is where there is money to be made...when you find an opponent or group that doesn't know they are not that good. That was extremely common in the 1970's and much of the 80's when it was not uncommon to find people to play for $100 a point who would not be competitive in the Intermediate Division today. It's still happening today, but mostly at private clubs, inside of companies and small social groups around the world. How do I know this? Because some of those players are or have been my students. I have students you have never heard of in games you have never heard of playing for $50 a point, $200 a point, and one game for $1000 a point. These games are not open to or available to the people on this forum--again, they may not be great backgammon players, but they are not stupid.
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