The best longshot chance is to make a point somewhere, and hope the opponent rolls the root number that it blocks. That way, he may be forced to break his 20pt, and cough up another blot or two. Here, either 11pt or 12pt can be made, with the latter seemingly best. The 11pt blocks 32, 41, and 55 while the 12pt blocks 22, 33, 42, 51, and 66. When you discount White’s rolls of doublets, which don’t shake loose a blot, it seems to be a tie. White blots with 4 numbers either way. That being the case, I would make the 12pt, because it better contains White’s runner when he does not roll one of his root numbers. After that, I would not hit, and I don’t want to advance the rear checkers. Making the 22pt would be self-defeating. That leaves pushing the checker on the 16pt up one pip to the 15pt. Z (Reverse split) = 17/12, 16/15 Mike | ||||||||||||
