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5a 3a recube to 4? ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 6 May 2013, at 2:32 p.m.

In Response To: 5a 3a recube to 4? (ah_clem)

Here, blue is only about 45% to win the game, but shipping the cube is still correct due to the match score. I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to calculate the theoretical minimum doubling point.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 35
5 point match
pip: 95
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABCBCB------------ba-dBf-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 45.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 46.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 54.51% (G:4.73% B:0.03%) 53.91% (G:6.88% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities -0.134 +0.099
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.004 (-0.103)±0.003 (-0.007..-0.001)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.099±0.004 (+0.095..+0.103)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.901)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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