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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout
Posted By: Stick In Response To: OLM Fri. Jan. 5th Cube Decision (Stick)
Date: Saturday, 6 January 2007, at 5:35 a.m.
You do have market losers here, you're obviously ahead in the race, and you are behind in the match. All of this points to doubling but pre rollout I thought it was close enough to wait and for money I would have. The good side is if you can clear your mid you're more or less home free. More good news, I'll have to give up my midpoint most likely next roll so I'll only get indirect shots. The only bad news is you currently have, and are likely to have down the road, bad numbers every roll. You blot immediately on 6-3, 6-4, and 5-4. With the current strength of my board that's a lot of blotting numbers. It's likely to continue too until you clear the mid.
As a side note, one of my last plays with a 6-3 I made the board instead of coming up with the 3 because with a double on the horizon for you I thought the strength of my board might deter it a roll when you should have doubled. I believed 24/21 to be correct but not by enough to make a huge difference. It was more important for me to try to disuade you from cubing here. =P
Match to 25, White leads 9 to 4
Blue on roll. Cube Action?132 113 Board image courtesy of GO-Figure
Cube action equity Rollout Money equity: 0.499 0.2% 8.0% 72.8% 27.2% 3.9% 0.0% 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.499 ±0.008, - live cube no double: 0.856 ±0.015, - live cube double take: 0.856 ±0.020. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 66153 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database. Evaluations 1. No double 0.848 2. Double, take 0.844 (-0.003) 3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.152) Proper cube action: No double, take 2% Live cube 1. Double, take 0.856 2. No double 0.856 (-0.000) 3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.144) Proper cube action: Double, take
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