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Rollout

Posted By: Michael Nielsen
Date: Saturday, 18 May 2013, at 7:27 p.m.

In Response To: Raj cube in London Open (Phil Simborg)

Still surprised that it's this close to being a proper cube. You should generally be very careful with these early cubes at 5-away, many-away.
White is Player 1

score: 1
pip: 148
11 point match
pip: 157
score: 6

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bB---DAB-A-eC----bbbb--B-:0:0:-1:00:1:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.59% (G:27.41% B:2.77%) 71.96% (G:27.91% B:4.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.41% (G:7.54% B:0.42%) 28.04% (G:8.06% B:0.43%)
Cubeless Equities +0.663 +1.191
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.756±0.013 (+0.743..+0.769)
Double/Take:+0.680 (-0.076)±0.023 (+0.657..+0.703)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.244)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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