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Near-end-contact 43

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 21 May 2013, at 2:22 p.m.

In Response To: Near-end-contact 43 (storm)

If we hold the 18 point there are 15 shakes that fail to clear, leaving us with a shot. Since we'll hit about a third of those shots (white will move up to reduce the number of shots) this gives us 12% chance to win by getting a hit ( I think we win almost all of them after a hit, even without cube access)

If we run we increase our racing prospects at the cost of giving white 5 extra shots to run. But since these hits with a 6 put us back into contact, it's not necessarily bad. But I'm not seeing that this is better than holding the 18 point. So, running with 18/11 is worth considering, and may well be best, but I'll hold the fort and hope for one of the 15 non-clearing numbers. the obvious non-running play is 7/3 4/1.

Taking cube action into account, it sure looks like white has a cash after either play, so I don't know that it matters much.

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