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Cube at 5a-4a

Posted By: onur alan
Date: Tuesday, 21 May 2013, at 9:00 p.m.

In Response To: Cube at 5a-4a (onur alan)

I thought with three point board and a threat at 20pt I am strong enough to dbl. Again result was surprised me by blunder. 2 back checkers and may be one more back checker after hit gives high gammon rate which should be dbl but our 2 back checkers will be also problem for us to escape so not dbl.





White is Tansel Došan

score: 7
pip: 164
11 point match
pip: 166
score: 6

Blue is Onur Alan
XGID=-b-BB-B-A---eDA--bAea---B-:0:0:1:D:6:7:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60,49% (G:22,05% B:1,83%) 60,73% (G:21,85% B:1,82%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39,51% (G:10,67% B:1,40%) 39,27% (G:10,58% B:1,45%)
  Cubeless Equities +0,290 +0,690
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,520±0,021 (+0,499..+0,542)
Double/Take:+0,432 (-0,088)±0,027 (+0,405..+0,460)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,480)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13,4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 36 minutes 45 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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