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Near-end-contact 43

Posted By: Chase
Date: Wednesday, 22 May 2013, at 4:59 p.m.

In Response To: Near-end-contact 43 (ah_clem)

If we hold the 18 point there are 15 shakes that fail to clear, leaving us with a shot. Since we'll hit about a third of those shots (white will move up to reduce the number of shots) this gives us 12% chance to win by getting a hit.

Just as a factoid to tuck away...

Many years ago, I spent some time trying to calculate exactly how often White gets hit in this type of position (on roll, with a blot six pips away from opponent's anchor). When you add residual shots, where White fails to clear on subsequent rolls, White ends up getting hit about 15% of the time. (This assumes Blue has the timing to hold the anchor.)

If the anchor is five pips away, White is hit about 9% of the time. Somewhere in my notes, I have the percentages for other distances, but I can't get at them and don't recall off the top of my head.

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