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Last one worked; let's try another

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 25 December 2007, at 2:41 a.m.

In Response To: Last one worked; let's try another (Chuck Bower)

Candidates: 8/3 5/4, 21/15, 21/16 8/7, 7/1*, 21/20 13/8.

Putting White on the bar works out great when it works but terrible when it doesn't, and it doesn't look like it wins enough gammons to justify leaving 18 shots. If White had a lot of outside checkers, it might be right to jack up gammons.

Between 21/16 8/7 and 21/15, I'll go with 21/16 8/7. It leaves one less shot and one less blot, and getting hit in White's outfield isn't as bad as getting hit on the 8. Making the 8 is worth a little if White steps up with a 2 but otherwise not worth very much, so likewise, I prefer 21/16 8/7 to 21/20 13/8.

That leaves just slotting the point or running away. Since there's only one cover for the 3 and it leaves a bunch of pick and pass numbers, I'd rather just run away. The race is close, but White's trapped, so Blue may not need the 3 point to win anyway. He may be able to make the ace point or the three point further down the road, but he is going to need to escape that last checker.

Summary: 21/16 8/7.

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