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Also, how would you analyse a position like this?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 28 September 2013, at 7:54 a.m.

In Response To: Also, how would you analyse a position like this? (Snua)

3.5-point board vs. 1-point board and stacked spares, 7/36 numbers make the 5 point, White has 1 on his 24 point, 1 on the bar, and a third blot that we hit with another 15/36 numbers. We trail 4-away 3-away. We win many match-ending gammons.

Looks like a money blitz double, but clear take. Suppose then that Blue wins ~60% with 1/3 gammons.

Then is it a take at the score?

Pass -> 3-away all = 50%

Take/lose single -> 3-away 2-away = 40%

Take/lose gammon -> 3-away 0-away = 0%

Take/Win -> 1-away 4-away Cr = 81%

If 1/3 of Blue's wins are gammons then

Risk = (10 + 10 + 50) / 3 = 23%

Or

Risk = 10% + 1/3 of the way from 10% to 50% = 23%

Gain = 31%

R/(R+G) = 23/54 = 42% take point.

Pass.

Messages In This Thread

• Also, how would you analyse a position like this?
  Snua -- Friday, 27 September 2013, at 4:37 p.m.
  • Also, how would you analyse a position like this?
    HOMINID -- Friday, 27 September 2013, at 10:37 p.m.
    • Also, how would you analyse a position like this?
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 28 September 2013, at 9:50 p.m.
      • Dastardly 2 or more - 1 to 5
        Rod -- Saturday, 28 September 2013, at 11:14 p.m.
  • Also, how would you analyse a position like this?
    Neil Robins -- Saturday, 28 September 2013, at 1:36 a.m.
  • Also, how would you analyse a position like this?
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 28 September 2013, at 7:54 a.m.