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OLM Sat. Jan 5th

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 5 January 2008, at 6:19 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sat. Jan 5th (Stick)

Clearly we are bigger favorites here than after our 41 roll since we now have some timing and Stick has rolled a large number and he timing to contain us after he hits, is going down the toilet.

Based on this and also noting Stick's almost zero recube equity and wanting a G to help catch up, I think we should be chasing after one now.

14/9 6/2 leaves our blot on Stick's 17 pt and causes him problems playing from his midpt and may give him problems if he hits it. It also slots our next point inline and if we get the 17 blot hit and trapped, we may just roll that 6 to advance our prime. How can this play backfire ? Well, basically only if Stick can hit one and trap us and we roll a blocked big double or if he can hit and somehow trap both before crashing. Noting that we have a spare on our 9 point, these parleys aren't likely and in the process of trying for them, Stick will sometimes get another checker hit.

17/13 14/9 is being too soft on Stick and will G him less often and still can lose and can once in a while result in us having issues walking our prime in.

I play 14/9 6/2 and refuse to make his life easy here.

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