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I thought one of the plays considerably better, I was wrong.
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: I thought one of the plays considerably better, I was wrong. (Bill Riles)
Date: Monday, 7 January 2008, at 11:20 p.m.
This is a tough problem and my play differs from most here. I'll enter, and close more board and then throw the cube (huge take but so volatile) ! 13 numbers escape from the ace point and give White great G chances and 21 allows White to split and keep the homeboard.
If White splits and hits loose 20 numbers allow escape next roll, but White is hit 30% of the time, so we can discount some of those. If White splits and Blue dances, White has a clear cube and a stronger position, than with a closed board, but considering that White may not cover and may not escape, it looks like an easy take.
White really doesn't want to be hit here as often he'll enter and then crash and that will be about the end.
While I do think it's close, I'm closing my home board and throwing the cube and hoping my dice are good. I can certainly win if I end up breaking my 6 pt here, although I will be an underdog. If I end up breaking down to a 4 pt board and still have two checkers stuck on the 24 pt, I may have to pass the recube even if both Blue checkers are on the bar, but this is a chance I'll take.
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