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OLM Thurs. Jan 10th

Posted By: Havard Raddum
Date: Thursday, 10 January 2008, at 8:59 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. Jan 10th (Stick)

Take off one and increase the chance of getting hit but also the chance for gammon, or clear the 5-point?

Assume Stick enters on the 4 (11/36). Then we'll have to roll 61, 51 or 41 (6/36), and then Stick must hit the direct shot (11/36). OR: assume Stick dances (16/36). Then we must roll 41, 51, 61 or double 3 or higher (10/36), and then Stick must hit the direct shot (11/36). Together I get 5.3% of getting hit when taking one off. .

Stick must dance (16/36), then we must roll double 3 or higher (4/36) and then Stick must hit a direct shot (11/36). This leads to 1.5% chance of getting hit when clearing the five.

The increased chance of getting hit after taking one off is 3.8%, so I guess the gammon chances must increase by 7.6% for making it worthwhile. Since we have an even number of checkers now, and can expect to take off two on every roll from here on it doesn't seem like we'll get off in fewer rolls by taking one off here. Not enough to make the gammons increase by 7.6%.

The safer 5/2 5/1 for me.

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