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OLM Thurs. Jan 10th

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Thursday, 10 January 2008, at 9:11 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. Jan 10th (Stick)

Getting an extra man off with 4/0 4/1 is probably worth 3 to 4% gammons. I'll guess that even though we lead the match getting to Crawford is beneficial enough to make the gammon price roughly normal. So can concede no more than 1.5 to 2% extra losses to make this play worthwhile.

For White to get a shot, Blue must roll 61 51 41 66 55 44 33 (10 shots, 27%) and White must hit (11 shots, 30%). However, playing safe with 5/1 5/2 leaves shots on the four big doubles, so there are only six (17%) extra shots. Therefore, White will hit about 5% more often. If White hits next roll, we will have 4, 5 or 8 men off. White will often have an efficient recube so I'm counting all hits as wins for White. This is a long way from being worthwhile.

Clearing the five point is best.

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