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OLM Thurs. Jan 10th

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Thursday, 10 January 2008, at 11:41 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. Jan 10th (Havard Raddum)

Since we have an even number of checkers now, and can expect to take off two on every roll from here on it doesn't seem like we'll get off in fewer rolls by taking one off here.

There is a reduction in take off speed after 43:5/1 5/2 that comes from the variations where Stick dances (16 numbers) and we roll a 6-5-4 with a 1-2-3 (18 numbers). Then we get to take only one off to stay safe. This happens about 1/4 of the time. How much do we lose in this case? One man extra off in a close race - and this gammon race is fairly close - corresponds to about 10% difference in chances. However that is when it is not clear whether the extra man will result in an extra roll or not - here it is most likely that it will, and losing one man off will be closer to 20% lost gammon chances.

However even 20% of 25% is only 5% lost gammons for playing safe, and not close to the 7.6% needed by your risk calculations

5/2 5/1 for me as well

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