I can't believe almost everyone took this cube. Maybe it's becaue I have pages marked like an insane person in Kit's The Backgammon Encyclopedia but the first thing that came to mind when I looked at this position is how much of a difference it makes that I have my bar point. This will facilitate my route home from the midpoint. On top of that you're letting me immediately shoot at a blot to put you on the bar and help clear it and trust me, that blot you have on the ace point is no bargain in this position. Your board isn't terrible but not the sweetest thing I've ever seen in the world. All of your equity almost has to come from hitting a shot and you just don't hit one or get one enough. The gammons are a significant factor here too, w/the two loose blots. I even thought the take might hit blunder range, but it didn't. Notice too it's a very small error if I decide not to double, because in almost all scenarios I'll still have my DP next turn (or TG if I toss myself a joker or an ok roll + anti-joker for you)
| 126 |                         |
| 162 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.625 | |
| 0.5% 15.9% 75.0% 25.0% 3.7% 0.1% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.625 ±0.010. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 42734 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database. | |||
| 1. | Double, pass | 1.000 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.968 | (-0.032) |
| 3. | Double, take | 1.067 | (+0.067) |
| Proper cube action: Double, pass | |||