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* * * Rollout, Surprise and Mystery... * * *

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 16 January 2008, at 11:49 a.m.

In Response To: * * * Rollout, Surprise and Mystery... * * * (Klaus Evers)

How can it be, that in this simple positions, with all gammons gone [in a money game], the play that wins the most games (52.5%) is only ranked as #3 play?

(1) The win percentages that Gnubg reports are not cubeful. The differences in the win percentages are small, but it may be that since after 3/off 2/off and a fan Blue has more numbers that leave a blot next roll, a subsequent White hit leads to Blue losing a few more cubeful games to a double/pass than the best play does.

(2) 5/off is probably even a little better than your money game rollout shows. Gnubg cube action isn't sterling. After any of the three plays and a fan, Gnubg doubles and takes. After 5/off, though, it's a very small pass. Or so a rollout says.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 7

Move number 7: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	30
Blue	28
Position ID: HwAAoLUNAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAOAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.462
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.792
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.208
3.	No double	+0.693	-0.098
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.731 0.000 0.000 - 0.269 0.000 0.000 +0.462 +0.693 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 Player White owns 4-cube 0.736 0.000 0.000 - 0.264 0.000 0.000 +0.943 +0.792 Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1050776256 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 7

Move number 7: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	30
Blue	28
Position ID: HwAAoO0WAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAOAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.544
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.009	+0.009
3.	No double	+0.781	-0.219
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.772 0.000 0.000 - 0.228 0.000 0.000 +0.544 +0.781 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 Player White owns 4-cube 0.776 0.000 0.000 - 0.224 0.000 0.000 +1.103 +1.009 Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1050776256 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 1

Move number 7: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	30
Blue	28
Position ID: HwAAoN0bAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAACAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.470
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.856
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.144
3.	No double	+0.754	-0.102
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.735 0.000 0.000 - 0.265 0.000 0.000 +0.470 +0.754 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 Player White owns 4-cube 0.738 0.000 0.000 - 0.262 0.000 0.000 +0.953 +0.856 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1050776256 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
  Klaus Evers -- Sunday, 13 January 2008, at 10:29 a.m.
  • Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
    Havard Raddum -- Sunday, 13 January 2008, at 8:49 p.m.
    • Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
      scuba -- Monday, 14 January 2008, at 7:24 p.m.
      • Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
        Klaus Evers -- Monday, 14 January 2008, at 8:20 p.m.
  • Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
    Caryl Stephanson -- Monday, 14 January 2008, at 3:48 a.m.
    • Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 14 January 2008, at 4:37 a.m.
      • Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
        Caryl Stephanson -- Tuesday, 15 January 2008, at 6:27 p.m.
  • Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 14 January 2008, at 2:09 p.m.
  • Do you think your bot can handle this roll?
    Keene -- Monday, 14 January 2008, at 8:24 p.m.
  • * * * Rollout, Surprise and Mystery... * * *
    Klaus Evers -- Tuesday, 15 January 2008, at 9:46 p.m.
    • * * * Rollout, Surprise and Mystery... * * *
      Stick -- Wednesday, 16 January 2008, at 1:28 a.m.
      • * * * Rollout, Surprise and Mystery... * * *
        Klaus Evers -- Wednesday, 16 January 2008, at 5:28 p.m.
    • look at Neil's post for the explanation (nt) *NM*
      Peter G. -- Wednesday, 16 January 2008, at 9:09 a.m.
    • * * * Rollout, Surprise and Mystery... * * *
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 16 January 2008, at 11:49 a.m.
      • * * * Rollout, Surprise and Mystery... * * *
        Klaus Evers -- Wednesday, 16 January 2008, at 9:15 p.m.
        • * * * Rollout, Surprise and Mystery... * * *
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 17 January 2008, at 3:11 a.m.