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Re: link

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 17 January 2008, at 3:24 a.m.

In Response To: Re: link (Bob Koca)

But at the time of the double the position was significantly better than at the time at which the hit was declined. There were chances of sending 3 more men back and also chances of rolling the prime a long way home and still maintaining chances at hitting a second checker.

I partly agree with you, Bob, that sometimes not hitting a second (or third) checker did not make in itself make the double premature, since as you point out the chances of hitting a third and/or fourth checker, or (perhaps) just a second checker but with a more advanced prime made the double worthwhile. In fact I don't think opponent had a take.

But I'd still have hit the second checker in the position reached over the board. If we close out one checker with a good bearoff board we're winning about 78% with opponent holding the cube. But we don't always reach that position. So our win percentage is something less than 78% if we don't hit the second checker. And I think it will be higher if we hit and attempt to close out two checkers. Apparently I don't think opponent's chance of making a timely anchor is very high.

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