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Re: OLM Wed. Jan. 10th

Posted By: stremba
Date: Wednesday, 10 January 2007, at 4:17 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Jan. 10th (Stick)

We are a big favorite to win, and we do have threats, so it's clear that we are good enough to double. Stick gets gammoned fairly often from this position and we are fairly likely to contain his back checker, so I don't think he has enough winning chances to take. Is it too good? I don't think so. We may not be able to hit a second checker, in which case gammons drop tremendously. Further, even if we hit, contain and close out both checkers, it's not a certainty that we'll win the gammon. It's fairly early in the match, so I don't think it's a big error to use the money ratio of needing two gammons for each loss to keep playing. I don't think we have that many gammons, and we don't have a lot of ammo ready to attack the back checker if he can step up to the 4 pt. giving him chances to escape. Double, pass.

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