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Cube decision (and settlement question)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 30 January 2008, at 8:51 a.m.

In Response To: Cube decision (and settlement question) (Daniel Murphy)

Tom's estimate of ND equity is about right. He said .5, it's actually about 0.487. For DT equity, split the difference between Tom's 0.4 and Bob's 0.48 and get 0.442. So, correct cube action is no double.

How often does Blue win after ND or D/T? Gosh, who knows. But the equities tell us that with correct cube action as high as the cube may get but somehow adjusting so that the cube nevertheless always has a value of one, after ND Blue wins the equivalent 74.35% of games, after D/T only 61.05%.

A fair settlement is, of course, 0.487 times 1 point, about half a point. The cubeless equity (0.3155) and cubeless win percentage (which we do know, from the equity, is 65.77%) are irrelevant to settlement value, indeed, irrelevant to this money game, period, except as a guide to what the correct cube action might be.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube decision (and settlement question)
  Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 27 January 2008, at 3:42 a.m.
  • Cube decision (and settlement question)
    bob koca -- Sunday, 27 January 2008, at 4:08 a.m.
  • Cube decision (and settlement question)
    Tom Keith -- Sunday, 27 January 2008, at 12:33 p.m.
  • Cube decision (and settlement question)
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 30 January 2008, at 8:51 a.m.
    • Cube decision (and settlement question)
      bob koca -- Thursday, 31 January 2008, at 5:54 a.m.