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Rollout: Random 21

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 10 April 2014, at 12:11 a.m.

In Response To: Random 21 (Timothy Chow)

A pity more people didn't try this one because it is, as Stick put it, very cute. I played 21/20 3/1* and although I was not sure of the play, I was certainly startled when XG World Class analysis said that 21/20 5/3 was ahead by about 0.04! A full rollout narrowed the gap considerably but 5/3 is still on top. If I had been given this position and asked to find the bot play, I doubt that I would have gotten it in three tries. I can come up with some reasons for it but certainly not convincingly enough to be able to find a similar play OTB next time. Any thoughts?

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 133 7 point match pip: 147 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-A-BD-A--BcC-b-c-dAA--b-:0:0:1:21:3:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	21/20 5/3	eq: -0.047
	Player: Opponent: 45.47% (G:11.92% B:0.52%) 54.53% (G:12.83% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.056...-0.039) - [99.1%] Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.	Rollout1	21/20 3/1*	eq: -0.062 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 44.67% (G:12.24% B:0.54%) 55.33% (G:13.26% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.071...-0.054) - [0.9%] Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
3.	Rollout2	21/20 13/11	eq: -0.093 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 44.29% (G:11.10% B:0.49%) 55.71% (G:12.62% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.111...-0.075) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 52 seconds
4.	Rollout2	21/20 8/6	eq: -0.136 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 43.59% (G:10.74% B:0.50%) 56.41% (G:11.33% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.152...-0.120) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 40 seconds
5.	Rollout2	6/3	eq: -0.162 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 44.95% (G:13.17% B:1.18%) 55.05% (G:23.12% B:1.51%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.179...-0.146) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 52 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Random 21
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 8 April 2014, at 3:45 p.m.
  • Random 21
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 8 April 2014, at 3:55 p.m.
  • Random 21
    Stick -- Wednesday, 9 April 2014, at 11:26 p.m.
  • Rollout: Random 21
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 10 April 2014, at 12:11 a.m.
    • Rollout: Random 21
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 10 April 2014, at 4:07 a.m.
      • 31P-32Z-42S-43K-F-53N-54-65R-52H-51D-21
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 10 April 2014, at 2:54 p.m.