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OLM Mon. Feb. 11th - Cube

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Monday, 11 February 2008, at 1:09 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. Feb. 11th - Cube (Stick)

Rule 62 says our takepoint is 7 pips for an efficient race in a money game. Our takepoint is 25% rather than the 22% or so it would be at money play. The 3% difference is probably worth about one pip, so we have a take if trail by up to six pips.

How do the inefficiencies in our positions compare? I estimate we waste about 14 pips - because our most efficient bear-in probably covers the five and six points, and that the 333222 structure wastes 13.7 pips. White's stack on the deuce wastes about 2.5 pips, and the gap is worth maybe 2 pips at a guess. Adding those to the baseline 7.5 we get 12 pips of wastage.

In summary, I've estimated that Blue wastes two pips more than White, so the lead is 6 effective pips, . Can I consider any other factors?

  • My guess at the wastage for the gap is suspect. I think I'd be low rather than high. This favours the take.
  • The race is somewhat inefficient for both sides. This favours the leader, so argues for passing.
  • I estimated one pip for the difference between the money takepoint and 25%. Money takepoints can often be around 21.5%, so a 3.5% difference probably means more like 1.5 pips. This would adjust our point of last take to 5.5 pips, so we lean to passing again.

I think that if we take all these factors into account, we ought to pass this cube. If I'm wrong, then I'll be interested to learn how I've erred.

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